Alea IactAI Est

Enablement, Cross-Level Integration and Ethical Risk in Military Planning and Execution

Lieutenant Colonel Elliot Shale

This article examines the impact of narrow artificial intelligence technologies on the planning and execution of warfare across the strategic, operational, and tactical levels. Drawing on NATO doctrine the analysis uses situational awareness and targeting processes as representative case studies to evaluate how current AI capabilities, including machine learning, natural language processing, and edge computing, can be applied to real-world military functions, and considers how the reuse potential of shared data architectures enables cross-level integration of these tools.

The research identifies three recurring themes in the current literature. Firstly, narrow AI functions primarily as an enabler, delivering significant improvements in decision tempo and information fidelity by automating data fusion, pattern recognition, predictive analytics, and orders generation. Secondly, current generation narrow AI systems exhibit inherent limitations including data-quality dependencies, algorithmic bias, opacity, and an absence of human contextual judgement, constraining their potential and necessitating human-machine teaming. Thirdly, successful integration demands deliberate attention to safe and ethical implementation, encompassing doctrinal adaptation, trust calibration, and robust governance frameworks to mitigate moral, legal, and escalation risks.

The article argues that shared data architectures, illustrated by the Maven Smart System, are the critical enabler of cross-level integration, allowing the same tools and data pools to serve strategic, operational, and tactical functions simultaneously. Ethical risks, illustrated by Israeli Defence Force systems such as Lavender and Hasbora and reinforced by emerging evidence from Operation Epic Fury, underscore the requirement for explainable AI, rigorous data governance, and sustained human oversight. The article concludes that whilst AI delivers meaningful enhancement to planning and execution, the totality of change required; conceptual, organisational, and doctrinal; does not yet meet the threshold of a revolution in military affairs. Realising systemic benefit requires not only technical integration but cultural change, with resilient data networks and ethical guardrails as critical determinants of future military advantage.

Link to full article.